Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Purchase Applications 35 percent Below Last Month

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 12.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Memorial Day holiday

Refinance Index: decreased 14.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: decreased 16.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 30.4 percent lower than Memorial Day week last year.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 72.2 percent of total applications from 73.8 percent the previous week. This is the first decline in the refinance share in five weeks

Arm Share: decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week, which is the third consecutive weekly decrease.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.

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